Right now, my gut is telling me this:
1) Populism is on the rise, globally and especially in Europe. This is fueled by concerns of ordinary middle class people about the impact of globalization on the economy, culture and safety of their countries.
2) There is tension between a further centralization of power in the European Union, and the wish to maintain the national integrity of countries.
3) Accumulated debt in the world is even higher than in 2008 before the Great Recession. Since interest rates are already artificially low, there are no effective instruments for central banks to soften the blow when a new crisis would come.
Within the age group 16 to 30 in Germany, men outnumber women by more than 600,000 (9%). Hundreds of thousands less desirable men will have no prospect of finding a partner at all. This demographic imbalance can result in violence and is a threat to the stability of society. A probable cause is Germany taking in mainly young male refugees since 2015, instead of more vulnerable groups such as women and children. The government should take this problem into consideration when formulating immigration policy.
I have published the R package "elections", including a dataset with the outcomes of the USA presidential election, as well as possible predictors. I am planning to fit predictive models to these data, but haven't gotten around to it yet. However, I am very happy that the package has already been used for an interesting analysis and blog post by Ryan Ferris of Bellingham Politics and Economics.